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Monte Carlo Calculator

A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios to show the range of outcomes an investment could have, not just one average result.

How it works Report a problem

Monte Carlo Calculator

Enter your values below and press Calculate to see your result instantly.

The Median Outcome (P50)
$21,589
OPTIMISTIC (P90)
$45,120
CONSERVATIVE (P10)
$9,410
There is a 50% probability your portfolio will exceed $21,589. Volatiltiy is your primary risk factor.

About the Monte Carlo Calculator

A Monte Carlo simulation runs thousands of random scenarios to show the range of outcomes an investment could have, not just one average result.

How to use the Monte Carlo Calculator

  1. Enter your Investment Capital, Expected Return (%) and Volatility / SD (%).
  2. Enter the Simulation Period (Yrs) and the Trial Count (up to 5,000).
  3. Press Run Stochastic Simulator.

Formula and method

In each trial, annual returns are drawn at random from a distribution with your expected return and volatility, and compounded over the period. The results are then summarised as percentiles (for example the worst 10%, median and best 10%).

Tips

  • A wider spread means higher risk.
  • More trials give a smoother estimate.
  • Simulations show possibilities, not predictions.

Frequently asked questions

Why use Monte Carlo instead of a single average return?
Because markets are uncertain. The simulation shows the range of outcomes, including poor ones.